Thursday, 20 June 2013

American-Israeli Invasion of Iran

American administration perceives nuclearisation of Iran as the immediate strategic threat to its interests in the Middle East. In case Iran does not give up its nuclear weaponisation programme (which seems unlikely), America would launch an invasion once it has withdrawn from Afghanistan. Therefore, America is preparing for the eventuality by destroying Iranian allies like Al-Assad and Hezbollah, which will weaken Iran. Since America is not yet ready to directly attack another country, it is supporting Sunni radicals as proxy. Even Israel is supporting the Syrian rebels because creating a Shia-Sunni rift helps its cause and it also considers Iran as its principal threat. Hezbollah and Hamas have already parted ways. Soon, the Jewish settlement policy may cease and talks begin with Hamas, at least till Iran is settled.

Conservatives in America criticise President Obama for being a supporter of Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi Wahhabism and Turkish Caliphate, which is true, not because Obama loves them, but for strategic reasons. The American government wants to reduce confrontation with the Sunni groups and enter into dialogue with them, whether in AfPak (Taliban), Palestine (Hamas) or with Muslim Brotherhood, even Al Qaeda. In the short term, it wants to weaken Iran by destroying its Shia proxies and possibly launch an invasion, just like it did in Iraq where Bill Clinton and George W. Bush played good cop-bad cop when the former destroyed its strength by imposing sanctions and no fly zones, and the latter concluded the plan by military occupation. An invasion on Iran would possibly come in the next administration with a hardline President. In the long term, however, the American government conceives China as the enemy with which also a similar strategy may be adopted, i.e., divide, weaken and then attack.

Israel will never directly participate in any invasion because that will make it impossible for Arab regimes to support the war. In fact, it may just turn more liberal and start dialogue process with Hamas, which will cool down Arab public opinion. Of course, the problems will not be resolved as no party will agree to any compromise because none is sincere about resolution. Anyway, once Iranian regime is pulled down, Israel will feel secure to launch new rounds of encroachment on the West Bank. The process may not stop until 'Judea and Samaria' are completely integrated.

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